2007, Time for war? by Peter Khan Zendran

2007. That date is becoming to military scientists and leaders, diplomats, business leaders and heads of state today what the date 1945 was to those people of 70 years ago. There is only one difference between the dates 1945 and 2007. The date 1945 was fixed by Adolf Hitler as the earliest date in which he intended to go to war, and his methods of building up his military for the Nazi government confirmed this, the only thing stopping him from keeping his timeline was timely foreign intervention. Today, nobody is calling for war openly, but the actions of nations around the world are abuzz that some kind of conflict must happen by 2007. With the current trends today it appears that some form of conflict might involve Iran by 2007.

Why conflict with Iran and is it possible? As to the why all we have to do is look at the current trend in American foreign affairs. Right now there are only two nations in the world that the American government has strong issues with that have powerful militaries, Iran and North Korea. North Korea remains a possible target but it’s possession of Nuclear weapons remains a strong deterrent to invasion. Iran, though it has a strong arsenal of Jet Fighters, including the Shafagh Stealth Fighter, Shahab-3 ICBM’s, and the industrial capacity to manufacture those weapons as well as Main Battle Tanks and all necessary Artillery, Armor, small arms, and support equipment. Iran’s Navy, though small, packs a punch with it’s 5 Frigates and 3 Russian Project 877 Submarines. This gives Iran the power to repulse any invader. Iran’s military is in a state of transition however and this leaves a window of opportunity to any potential invader. Fortunately for Iran, the militaries of other nations are in a state of transition as well, with 2007 a crux date.

If there is any indicator of how a nation is perceived abroad it by it’s Navy. The Russian Admiral Gorshkov was right that a nation is militarily only as strong as the power it can project abroad, and Naval strength and actions are excellent indicators of this. In 2007, immediately before, during, and immediately after, many navies will be making major changes. India, for instance, plans to commission two new Aircraft Carriers, one made in India, the other a Russian surplus sale. India also plans to commission it’s first Nuclear Submarine around 2007 as well, among other improvements to it’s expanding Fleet. Whether India will keep it the Carrier it has in service or put it up for sale is in question. Italy also plans to commission it’s second Aircraft Carrier, the Cavour, in 2007 to replace the Cruiser Vittorio Veneto. Most likely that Cruiser will be up for sale as well. This is making France, producer of the impressive La Fayette class of Frigates, to consider building another Aircraft Carrier. Russia is stepping up production of it’s Project 955 class Ballistic Missile Submarines at the rate of one a year to give it’s military a much needed boost. Germany’s Sachsen class of Destroyers is being produced toreplace it’s aging Lutjens class and it’s MEKO Destroyers and Frigates remain a popular import. Brazil also has put it’s recently decommissioned Carrier Minas Gerias up for sale. Brazil, as well as Argentina, Peru, and other Latin American nations have decommissioned warships that could be easily bought. Let us not forget countries like Russia, Germany, France, and Spain which have a strong reserve of warships and the capacity to produce them for other nations without taxing their industry. This leaves a surplus which no nation that wants a strong Navy and to remain sovereign can afford not to take advantage of and Iran should be one of those nations to take advantage of this surplus.

The American Navy plans to commission an Aircraft Carrier, the George H W Bush, as well around or shortly after 2007 and plans to decommission another one, the Kitty Hawk, around 2007 as well, with plans for new Stealth Aircraft Carriers in the works to begin in 2007. The Kitty Hawk, as well as the Carriers Enterprise and John F Kennedy, are aging and extremely vulnerable to attack. The American Navy is also planning to decommission several Cruisers, Frigates, and Submarines around 2007 as well. The American Navy plans to take several Destroyers out of service as well around 2007 to begin replacing them with the new Zumwalt class of Littoral Destroyers in 2007. The hulls of most of these Cruisers, Destroyers, and Frigates are so lightly protected that even a rowboat can penetrate their hulls, which is one reason the Navy is replacing them with these new warships. The first batch of the four new Virginia class Submarines will be finished in 2007 and plans are already in motion to begin building more of that class in 2007.

This Naval production activity gives one the impression that something is to occur around 2007. Remember the date 1945 I mentioned for Hitler earlier? Hitler had told his military chiefs that he wanted to go to war as early as 1945 because that was when the Nazi German Navy would have been strong enough to conduct offensive operations at sea. The only problem was that other nations, namely Britain and France, anticipated this and by keeping up diplomatic tension pressured Hitler into war in 1939. By that time the German Luftwaffe and Army were prepared for offensive operations. Notice how in 1940 that Germany, even though it’s U-Boats were able to penetrate British Naval ports and cause damage to British ships, was unable to come up with a coherent Naval invasion plan and had to use Air power to attack Britain. As a result aviation tactics would be focused on and developed by other nations. Naval Aviation would be focused on especially, after the results of Taranto, Pearl Harbor, and Midway were seen and Air power vindicated as a decisive weapon. Notice how even today, as I have shown above, Navies of the world focus on having an Aircraft Carrier in their fleet, to be able to project Air power abroad. Notice how in the attacks on Iraq in 1991 and 2003, Haiti in 1994, Yugoslavia in 1995 and 1999, and Afghanistan in 2001 much of the Air attacks were launched from Aircraft Carriers. If any attack is to be made on Iran expect it to be from an Aircraft Carrier.

That brings us to the question of Air power. As mentioned before Iran has recently developed the capability to manufacture it’s own Jet Fighter Aircraft, including Stealth Aircraft. However, Iran is still reliant on imports to augment it’s Air Force and will not have the capability to mass produce Jet Fighters until 2007. If anything is needed by a nation seeking a strong military is an industry that can turn out high quality products rapidly, and Iran’s Air Force will not have this until 2007. Which is one reason why any possible attack on Iran might happen before 2007.

If the Iranian government is aware of this it has already allowed two stupid mistakes to happen that will hurt it’s chances of defending Iran in the event of an invasion. First, Iran has made a deal with the IAEA which provides for IAEA monitoring of certain Nuclear facilities. Iran, like any sovereign nation, has the right to develop it’s Nuclear facilities however it wants, even if it means developing weapons out of it’s nuclear materials. Especially since American forces have prodigiously used Nuclear waste in their weapons in their invasions no nation facing American aggression can afford to be without Nuclear weapons, unless they want to end up like Iraq has. By making a deal with the IAEA Iran has bound itself in an agreement, which means if there is any breach of the agreement it could justify invasion. The second mistakes involve the ThyssenKrupp corporation, one of the most prestigious weapons manufacturing companies in the world. The Iranian government has considered selling it’s shares in that company and is not allowing the Iranian government member on ThyssenKrupp’s board to stand for re-election on that company. This is prompted by American pressure to exclude ThyssenKrupp from doing business in America, which if true is cowardly on ThyssenKrupp to act on, especially with the dominating presence it has in the global arms business.

It is interesting that ThyssenKrupp, owned by Georg-Heinrich von Thyssen-Bornemisza, could bow to American pressure, especially since it supplies weapons to most of the world and is one of the brains behind the MEKO design of warships. The fact that ThyssenKrupp is a German company that has bowed to American pressure, after Germany strongly opposed the American invasion of Iraq and has made strong ties with Iran, is puzzling. ThyssenKrupp is also responsible for showing Brazil and Turkey how to manufacture their own warships. If anything the Iranian government should be increasing their ties with ThyssenKrupp instead of letting them bow to American pressure. If anything Iran and ThyssenKrupp would both profit from an extended partnership. Consider what would happen if Iran were to get ThyssenKrupp to do for it’s military what it did for Brazil and Turkey. Many of the unemployed in Iran would have jobs, relieving the poverty of many Iranians and relieving one major source of domestic tension, and Iran would have a strong Navy and Naval industry, which Iran needs to develop. Hopefully the Iranian government will realize it’s mistakes and correct them.

There are two questions we must ask ourselves regarding any attack on Iran. The first is is any attack from any other country likely? Right now there is no real cause for attacking Iran, despite aggressive intentions coming from America and Israel. Except for those two countries no other nation has the desire and the means to successfully invade Iran. Notice how in Iraq many countries have pulled out of the occupying force, and those countries know that after Iraq they have no desire for round 2 in Iran. The second is what would any invasion of Iran resemble? Considering the sources clamoring for war with Iran any attack would come from America and Israel, since no other country is willing to ally with America in an invasive war, except for Britain which has worn itself in Iraq so that it can’t conduct offensive operations. Israel would not stand alone in a war with Iran, since both countries are equal in missile strength and Israel’s Air Force would wear itself out in flying in to attack Iran. That is the reason Israel would ally itself with America. American forces would certainly suffer heavy casualties in an invasion of Iran. American warships would easily destroyed by Iranian ICBM’s and short range missiles and Iranian Submarines would be able to inflict serious damage to American forces in the Persian Gulf.

America’s Air Force would meet it’s match in quality fighting Iran’s Air Force and American ground forces would meet heavy resistance. Certainly, many aging warships and aircraft would be lost by America and Israel if they were to invade, but would it spur new technological innovations by American, Israeli, and Iranian forces? It might, but consider that those developments have been anticipated by all sides. After Fallujah, Karbala, and Najaf any country now understands how to use urban combat techniques to defeat an invading force. Imagine the Fallujah scenario repeated in Qom, Ishfahan, Meshed, Shiraz, or Tabriz, casualties would be inflicted which would not have been seen since WWII, providing another deterrent to invasion.

There is nothing to look forward to in war, especially any invasion of Iran. It is something we must all work to prevent, whatever the cost.