Although the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report on Iran, made public this week, is already an old story, the reasons for its public disclosure remain to be discussed and understood.  The report: stated “…that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program” and “that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons” in the future. 

For a clear understanding of the report the two interwoven arguments in the assessment, with different implications, must be dissected and separately analyzed: 1) that Iran has not engaged in procurement or production of parts and materials necessary for the building of a nuclear device of any sort, and 2) that Iran had a nuclear weapons program before 2003 and it may decide to restart such a program in the future.  Between the two aspects of the report, the former is essential and the latter mainly involves future speculations, and the period before 2003 for which there is no proven documentation provided by the NIE that Iran had a nuclear weapons program. 

The former implication contradicts the claims by the U.S. government since 2003 that Iran has been using its right to civilian nuclear energy as a cover for its real intentions, that is, the production of a nuclear bomb.  As far as this clear dichotomy is concerned, the U.S. government has willfully abused its position in the United Nations Security Council, and hence the Resolutions 1737 and 1747, based on falsified information, lack credibility and in fact are illegal.  To redress the injustices committed against Iran, the United Nations must declare the sanctions, invalid and null.

Before opening the discourse about the underlying causes of the release now of the report, it is important to point out that it reflects the consensus of almost the entire U.S. ruling class, regardless of President Bush’s emphasis on his old redundant claim that the report shows that Iran has had a nuclear program before 2003 and it may keep the option open for the future.  Furthermore, the disclosure of the report dismayed some foreign governments that have been involved in the US-Iran nuclear dispute.  The U.S. intelligence estimate was characterized as “unfathomable” by the European diplomats who just two days earlier were involved in a strenuous effort to persuade the Russian and Chinese representatives in the United Nations’ Security Council to agree to a draft of yet another UN resolution requiring much tougher sanctions against Iran.

To what extent the British, French and German diplomats were unaware of the U.S. (NIE) findings prior to Dec. 2, 2007, remains to be seen. This question will be among the topics for research by current and future historians.  What is crystal clear is that it took four drawn out toxic years for the U.S. government and its European allies to realize that the endless stream of lies and cover-ups by the Bush Administration, mouth-pieced by the conservative majority in the U.S. Congress and attuned by the puppet Zionist regime in Israel, about Iran’s alleged nuclear threat to the international safety and security of the world will in the long run work against the strategic interests of the U.S. empire.  In fact, this policy of unilateralism has worked in favor of the establishment of a global regime of multilateralism, an international structure whose formation the U.S. “Superpower” has tried so desperately to prevent.

Why the Release Now?

Among the factors that have influenced the U.S. decision to reveal the intelligence assessment were the unshakable unity of the Iranian people in their support for Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear energy program and the uranium enrichment process, the perseverance of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his resistance not only to the American dictates but also to the selfish demand of the pro-U.S. Iranians who wanted the Islamic government to retreat and give in to the U.S. pressures.

Iran’s expanded economic, political, diplomatic and defense relations with Latin American countries as Venezuela, Cuba, Peru, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, and in Asia strong ties with Russia, China and the Caspian Sea states and in the Middle East with the peoples of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine were not small factors in reshaping the current formulation of U.S policy towards Iran. 

To demonstrate the steep rise in foreign investment in Iran, mostly in oil, gas and materials sectors, one must point out that such investments hit a record $10.2 billion in the Iranian calendar year ending March 20, 2007 from $4.2 billion in 2005 and merely $2 million in 1994.  The most active investors have been Germans, Chinese, Turkish, British, Norwegian, French, Japanese, Russian, South Korean, Swedish and Swiss concerns.  It is important to mention that in recent years the largest amount of foreign investment was in the industrial sector, including food and beverages, tobacco, textiles, leather, clothing, steel, chemicals and oil derivatives.  The totality of this picture shows that the Bush Administration in trying to “isolate Iran” has, in fact, excluded the American companies from investing in the profitable markets of Iran.  

Another factor that has frustrated the U.S. ambition in undermining Iranian sovereignty has been the relatively independent diplomacy of Europe, China, Russia and even Japan from U.S. unilateralism.  Instead of paying U.S. dollars for its purchase of Iranian oil, as it did for decades, today Japan, ignoring the disdain of the U.S. Congress, pays the Iranian government in Yen and avoids a loss of holding the U.S. dollar with its constantly shrinking exchange value.  Today, Iran receives 85% of its oil revenue in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.

With regard to the U.S.- Iran nuclear issue, the positions taken by the United Nation’s  Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon, in favor of dialogue, and the recent report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), headed by Dr. Mohammed El Baradei,  that there is no evidence for proving the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, added to the damage done to the U.S. reputation and credibility, if there were any left to be squandered by George W. Bush. 

 NIE: A Victory for Iran

The turning points in the course of events were President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran and his amiable talk with Ayatollah li Khamenei, the successful gathering of the Caspian Sea heads of State in Tehran and ultimately the visits of Iran’s National Security Secretary Saeed Jalili and Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki to Moscow. 

The developments of the course of events in the last few years have shown that in the absence of major changes in U.S.-Middle East policy, Iran would apply and most likely gain the status of a provisional membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).  The growing economic, political and military muscles of China and RussiaU.S., suffering from a host of financial, economical, and, for sure, credibility problems. have overshadowed the invincibility of the

Considering the significance that the Bush Administration in its world foreign policy attributed to Iran’s nuclear program, the revelation of the National Intelligence assessment (NIE) represents a major setback for the U.S., along with unimaginable global implications.  In turn, the U.S. retreat and its admission of perjury with regard to Iran’s non-existent nuclear weapons program, at least since 2003, is a clear sign of great victory for the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the entire nation of Iran that did not cave in under the relentless threats and pressures of world imperialism, headed by the United States.

While the disclosure of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report was a great source of joy for the pro-peace and progressive individuals, parties and governments around the world, it pained the minority of humanity that sides with war, exploitation and big business.  This tiny faction of the world’s population is still crying foul and has wasted no time regurgitating the old allegation that “Iran is still a threat” to the U.S.  Among these characters are former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, an infamous architect of the war in Iraq, the Prime Minister of Israel, Ehud Olmert, a war criminal who starves the civilian population in Gaza while threatening to drop nuclear bombs on Iran, and President George W. Bush who should have been impeached years ago for murdering one million Iraqis and using American soldiers as cannon-fodder.